Derek Taylor, our very own foreign exchange expert, is recommending that Travel Money Club members buying US Dollars this week should target their “Forward Orders” at $1.3500 for a great deal.
The “Forward Order” feature is exclusive to Travel Money Club and allows members to automatically buy currency when their target exchange rate is reached. They simply tell the us what currency to buy, what exchange rate to buy at, and the payment card to use. Then if and when the target exchange rate is reached, we automatically execute the order and deliver next business day* (for orders completed by 1pm). As it all happens in the blink of an eye, even if your target rate is only achieved for a couple of minutes, we will still execute your order! Here we explain the latest news about buying US Dollars.
Derek told us:
The chart shown today is a weekly chart going back to just before Brexit in June 2016. As we know, Brexit was not anticipated and the result prompted the Pound to fall rapidly from GBP/USD 1.5000, down to GBP/USD 1.2500 and then 1.2000 by late September 2016. 2017 actually saw the Pound recover against the US Dollar from GBP/USD 1.2000 to 1.3500. Currencies generally trade in either an uptrend, or a downtrend, or in a sideways trend. These are clear on the chart. The 2017 uptrend for the Pound was finally broken at the end of April 2018.
From May 2018 until now, the news about the Brexit situation has gone from bad to worse, with still no end in sight. The Pound has dropped from highs over GBP/USD 1.4000 to below 1.2500. Clearly in a downtrend as shown on the chart. So the story of 2018 was one of a falling Pound as Theresa May struggled not just with Brexit negotiations, but even her own government.
The point about trends is that they will tend to remain in place until they quite clearly break through the trend line. The price action in January 2019 shows this.
As we enter 2019 we are seeing the downtrend has been clearly broken. In fact around the time that Parliament voted OUT the Brexit deal, but voted Teresa May IN, on the vote of no confidence.
No-one has the “crystal ball”. The Brexit situation still has a way to go, but maybe all the bad news has been discounted in the price. Volatility is assured, but the Pound may be establishing a new uptrend. The coming months will see.
We are looking like we will be able to buy holiday, or business dollars at around GBP/USD 1.3500 quite soon. These are the best levels in 6 months, but we are now less than 2 months away from the UK’s Brexit date (March 29th). If you are planning a summer holiday and need to buy US Dollars, then why not try to buy half sometime soon, and as close to 1.3500 as you can get. If the Pound falls in March/April, then you have locked in a good rate for half your dollars. If the Pound continues up then you can buy the second half at an even better rate. Clever currency is not about predicting markets, but about timing when to buy. It makes sense.
Remember, breaking news moves markets!
ABOUT DEREK TAYLOR
Derek is Director and Co-Founder of the Travel Money Club, as well as CEO of Taylor Associates (International) Ltd, one of the City of London’s foremost financial and market training organisations. Taylor Associates was established in 1993, specializing in derivatives, capital markets, risk and treasury training. He has personally trained in banks, brokers, asset managers, hedge funds and corporations both in the UK and overseas.
Derek’s career started in Midland Bank Group Treasury working across a broad product range including Money Markets, Foreign Exchange, Equity and Fixed income. He rose to the level of senior Director, before moving to Lehman Brothers, and then Bank of America working both in London and NY.
Derek has primarily worked as a trader, both inter-bank and proprietary, but has also spent some years as an inter-bank broker, running desks at two of the world’s leading brokerage houses, Tullett Prebon and Harlow Butler Savage (now part of the ICAP group).
Derek is a frequent speaker on Financial Markets subjects all over the World, and is an Associate of the Chartered Institute of Bankers (ACIB), a member of the Forex Association (ACI), and a member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA).
* Please note that a small number of currencies are not available for next business day delivery. The actual delivery date will be clearly displayed in your order acknowledgement.
Derek Taylor, our very own foreign exchange expert, is recommending that Travel Money Club members buying US Dollars this week should target their “Forward Orders” at $1.4150 for a great deal.